decision-making heuristics
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:51 am
Good point about helmets. If you read an issue of Accidents in North American Mountaineering, one factor you'll see over and over in fatalities is that people weren't wearing a helmet.
Another issue that comes through really clearly in Andrew's trip report is the use of some bad heuristics for decision making. A heuristic is a quick and dirty method for solving problems or making decisions, which may work in many cases but will not always work. Sociologists have studied this kind of thing extensively by looking at deaths in avalanches. A couple of the common heuristics they've documented seem to have been used by Andrew.
One is the logic that if you see other people doing it, it's probably OK. For instance, when you're crossing the street, you may step into the street because you see other people doing it, without checking the traffic signal. In Andrew's account, he talks about having some doubts, but continuing on the climb because other people in the group were continuing. (People are knocking down other people in the group like bowling pins, but they keep climbing!)
Another has to do with commitment. Once people are there, they feel committed to the activity, so they go on. The more time and effort it's taken to get to where they are, the more reluctant they are to turn around. This seems pretty clear from Andrew's description of the meetup group as one that he had wanted to join and had been having trouble gaining entree into.
The leader of the group also clearly made a bad decision. One heuristic that can play into this kind of thing is that people have a strong psychological need to demonstrate to others through their own actions that they are the kind of person they present themselves as. Andrew seems to have perceived this guy as experienced, which was probably based on the guy's presentation of himself as an experienced person.
Another issue that comes through really clearly in Andrew's trip report is the use of some bad heuristics for decision making. A heuristic is a quick and dirty method for solving problems or making decisions, which may work in many cases but will not always work. Sociologists have studied this kind of thing extensively by looking at deaths in avalanches. A couple of the common heuristics they've documented seem to have been used by Andrew.
One is the logic that if you see other people doing it, it's probably OK. For instance, when you're crossing the street, you may step into the street because you see other people doing it, without checking the traffic signal. In Andrew's account, he talks about having some doubts, but continuing on the climb because other people in the group were continuing. (People are knocking down other people in the group like bowling pins, but they keep climbing!)
Another has to do with commitment. Once people are there, they feel committed to the activity, so they go on. The more time and effort it's taken to get to where they are, the more reluctant they are to turn around. This seems pretty clear from Andrew's description of the meetup group as one that he had wanted to join and had been having trouble gaining entree into.
The leader of the group also clearly made a bad decision. One heuristic that can play into this kind of thing is that people have a strong psychological need to demonstrate to others through their own actions that they are the kind of person they present themselves as. Andrew seems to have perceived this guy as experienced, which was probably based on the guy's presentation of himself as an experienced person.