NWS Forecast Discussion
Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:46 pm
Be sure to read this NWS forecast discussion through to the end 
THIS RIDGE MAY FINALLY START TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY...AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FINER DETAILS FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEEPEN ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH SOME SORT OF TROUGH EITHER
LINGERING OR A NEW TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THEIR PEAK ON WEDNESDAY OF 14 TO 16 DEGREES TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THESE DAYS...WITH SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE THOUGH REMAINS ON THE PRECIPITATION
FRONT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS VARY BY
MODEL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO IMPROVE...GIVEN BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET
WET ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND MAY BE MORE MARINE LAYER DRIVEN THAN
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT PEOPLE DUST OFF
THEIR RAIN DANCING SHOES AND START DANCING!
THIS RIDGE MAY FINALLY START TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY...AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FINER DETAILS FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEEPEN ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH SOME SORT OF TROUGH EITHER
LINGERING OR A NEW TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THEIR PEAK ON WEDNESDAY OF 14 TO 16 DEGREES TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THESE DAYS...WITH SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE THOUGH REMAINS ON THE PRECIPITATION
FRONT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS VARY BY
MODEL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO IMPROVE...GIVEN BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET
WET ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND MAY BE MORE MARINE LAYER DRIVEN THAN
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT PEOPLE DUST OFF
THEIR RAIN DANCING SHOES AND START DANCING!
