SNOW - Questions, Forecasts & Reports About Snow

AW~ · Post by **AW~** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 5:32 pm

If you want snow in the next 7 days read
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2 ... sights-on/
"OWSweather.com Meteorologist Kevin Martin predicts a 50 year event. While Martin is usually conservative on these events, the pattern highly favors it..."Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week, "said Martin. "With those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere. Our answer of the exact track will become more clear this week. All residents in the mountain communities should prepare this week for very cold, winter weather, with snow"

As for the source of the Ventura newspaper Mr.Martin.."Over the past six years Kevin has been targeted online and over the phone. He has received emails and phone calls from people saying they will destroy his credibility with the many he has dear to him. These people have set out to purposely sabotage Kevin on the net and over the phone. The actions these people have done are astounding. These people created usernames from the OWSweather, OWS, and Kevin Martin name. Anything associated with OWSweather or Kevin Martin has been plastered on websites. These messages were rude, and sometimes threatening. Websites banned Kevin for these threats. However, Kevin was not behind the computer. Kevin has received calls and emails from the very people stating they threaten and try to get Kevin in a lot of trouble."

be on the lookout for black helicopters in advance of this terrible winter storm

http://www.owsweather.com/pr121008a.html

AlanK · Post by **AlanK** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 5:50 pm

AW wrote:If you want snow in the next 7 days read
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2 ... sights-on/
...

See also.

simonov · Post by **simonov** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 5:57 pm

AW wrote: As for the source of the Ventura newspaper Mr.Martin.."Over the past six years Kevin has been targeted online and over the phone. He has received emails and phone calls from people saying they will destroy his credibility with the many he has dear to him. These people have set out to purposely sabotage Kevin on the net and over the phone. The actions these people have done are astounding. These people created usernames from the OWSweather, OWS, and Kevin Martin name. Anything associated with OWSweather or Kevin Martin has been plastered on websites. These messages were rude, and sometimes threatening. Websites banned Kevin for these threats. However, Kevin was not behind the computer. Kevin has received calls and emails from the very people stating they threaten and try to get Kevin in a lot of trouble." be on the lookout for black helicopters in advance of this terrible winter storm

You can watch Kevin and some other weather nerd called Michael engage in flamewars over weather predictions on the San Gorgonio Board.

So far this year, neither of them has got it quite right.

Funyan005 · Post by **Funyan005** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:37 pm

I usually read the NWS SD and LA/O offices local discussion

LA/O
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

SD
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Ultimately it is still a long way out but a few of the forecasters trying to nail down preliminary precip. amounts.
It's going to be cold and wet and thats all anyone really agrees on at this point. The copy I pasted earlier was from the 9:00 AM guy. For the most part, I believe that its gona be a decent amount of snow over all by the end of next week!
Snow Level down to 3000 feet and locally lower, which means that the 8k+ going to be covered. I always forget what the translation from rain to snow water ratios, but I always go by the inch of rain = 10 of snow.

VERY PRELIMINARY 6 DAY STORM RAINFALL TOTALS (SAT-THU)...COAST AND
VALLEYS 1-2 INCHES... FOOTHILLS 2 TO 3.5 INCHES... DESERTS .5 TO
1.0 INCHES. SNOW TOTALS...1 TO 1.5 FEET AT RESORT LEVELS...1.5 TO
2.5 FEET HIGHEST RIDGES. NOTE: THESE VALUES ARE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM AND ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

P.S. Reading the local discussions of each NWS district helps a lot, usually the forecasters go into great detail with whats going on and why they chose the forecast they did. It varies between each person and each shift, but ultimately great details are found out that way. The Hazardous weather outlooks generally are pretty lame on info

P.S.S. Looking at all the surrounding offices local discussion also helps! You can judge for yourself generally after reading the 4 or so that surround the san gabriels

glamisking · Post by **glamisking** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:44 pm

simonov wrote:
AW wrote: So far this year, neither of them has got it quite right.
Michael has nailed two storms this fall three weeks before they made land fall. The first was in late October and the second was the one over Thanksgiving. While his estimates tend to be on the high side he does a good job and he looks out for us as hikers and tries to prepare us for the worst. I use other forecasts as well but I consult Michael because I don't know of any better source for our mts. What weather do you check before a trip?

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 7:55 pm

AlanK wrote:
AW wrote:If you want snow in the next 7 days read
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2 ... sights-on/
...
See also.

Both Michael and Kevin's lack of written English skills really cuts into their credibility. Their lack of social skills in their flame wars and their doing things like saying "head forecaster" (lol) in their signature line as though they were truly a business rather than just a guy with a web site further erodes their credibility.

Post by **HikeUp** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:25 pm

Funyan005: thanks for those links and I agree that reading the discussions give good insight into the "forecasts".

AW: you mean you don't see black helicopters following you into those secret canyons you're always exploring?

HJ: I agree. In almost all professions, communication skills (writing and speaking) go along way in earning you respect.

I wish they would stop calling what they do "forecasts", and instead use terms like "best guess" or "estimate" or "look what I just pulled out of my ass". But then again, they probably wouldn't get paid as much as they do.

simonov · Post by **simonov** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:14 am

glamisking wrote: Michael has nailed two storms this fall three weeks before they made land fall. The first was in late October and the second was the one over Thanksgiving. While his estimates tend to be on the high side . . .

That's my point. He has made several apocalyptic predictions that failed to come true. Like the boy who cried wolf. I ignore him.

What weather do you check before a trip?

NOAA, bookmarked thusly:

Mt Baldy

San Gorgonio

San Jacinto

Mt Whitney

El Mirage

To the extent that any weather forecasts are ever particularly accurate, these have proven to be pretty good, in my experience.

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:22 am

I understand that they use the Multi Year Analytical Software System. Thus, their forecasters can truly say "I got these data straight out of MYASS."

AW~ · Post by **AW~** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:12 am

Hikeup: It is strange that almost everytime I have done Ybarra canyon, at least one helicopter has buzzed overhead

Air5 though

always wondered if I was in someones flight path or routine schedule as they always passed me around the same point which was usually around the same time. I dont keep any secrets and there are no canyons that appear by sleight of hand....ahh whose interested in canyons anyway?

Weather: I prefer to watch Jackie Johnson of KCAL9/CBS
http://cbs2.com/misc/Jackie.Johnson.For ... 99489.html
before a trip...it is true she is easy on the eyes

, but she is IMO also easy to listen to...not dramatic like the forecasts...throw in a nice non-dramatic CD on the way to mountains and Im cool 8)..unless its not raining and they said rain ..arrgh

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:36 am

The NWS is predicting snow, expecially on Monday, but their forecasts all say "Little or no snow accumulation expected. "

Funyan005 · Post by **Funyan005** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:34 pm

Right now the moisture level is going to be below 6k feet until Sunday'ish when the moisture profile will be saturated to 10k. There wont be much snow accumulation until Sunday, then, Sunday night/monday/monday night its going to snow big time they say! Foot above 6k

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:48 pm

What site did you look at? I looked at the NWS data for Mt. Baldy and San Gorgonio, but both said "Little or no snow accumulation expected" for today and tonight. No predictions were made for accumulations on Sunday and thereafter.

Funyan005 · Post by **Funyan005** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:06 pm

Gotta read the discussions! And Special Weather statements! Here...

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN DURING RECENT WEEKS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 7000 FEET TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET BY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH IT COULD GET LOCALLY
LOWER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE ONE TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO ONE FOOT IN THE HIGHER PARTS
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ON THE PEAKS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND
DENSE FOG WILL SEVERELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

And, most recent discussion for san diego offices at NWS
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SURGES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
NEAR SATURATION TO 10KFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY
MODERATE RAIN MONDAY. RAIN TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL MTN SLOPES BY MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM 6500
FEET TODAY TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET MONDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATING TO A FOOT OR MORE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

Funyan005 · Post by **Funyan005** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:07 pm

I'm heading up to big bear to stay in a cozy cabin tomorrow, I'll post pictures as I get dumped on! =P Hopefully get snowed in, and wont be leaving until Wednesday ish depending!

Bill · Post by **Bill** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm

The snow is starting to fall here in Wrightwood. I knew I picked the wrong year to sell the snow blower

You will be able to thank me if it turns out to be the 50 year season!

All this technology and hand wringing and it turns out all I have to do is wash my car!

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:37 pm

Bill wrote:The snow is starting to fall here in Wrightwood. I knew I picked the wrong year to sell the snow blower You will be able to thank me if it turns out to be the 50 year season!
All this technology and hand wringing and it turns out all I have to do is wash my car!

In that case, let me be the first to wish you a Merry Clean Car and a Happy New Wash!

Post by **Taco** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:06 am

The car wash is the modern rain dance!

Bill · Post by **Bill** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 7:19 am

May have spoke too soon. No accumulation, clear skies this morning. Better go wash the other car!

It is butt-screamin cold though! 8)

Funyan005 · Post by **Funyan005** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:56 am

8380 ft near Baldy

Tonight: Snow showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Monday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a west wind between 35 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:15 am

-5? -10? Yeah, that qualifies as "butt-screamin cold." Nice turn of phrase, Bill.

kgw · Post by **kgw** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 6:09 pm

THIS
SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD TO BRING THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR LOCAL MOUNTAINS. AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES ACROSS THE SBA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT BETWEEN 12 AND 18 INCHES. HIGHER RESORTS IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS CAN EXPECT LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 24 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

This is from http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/get ... d&back=yes

Merry Xmas!

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:08 pm

Nice! I hope it happens. So far this weekend has been pretty much a dud for snowfall.

Dudley Heinsbergen · Post by **Dudley Heinsbergen** » Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:56 pm

i'll see you guys on the lifts at thunder mtn this friday!

Bill · Post by **Bill** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:48 am

4 inches of light powder this morning and still coming down. 8) Windy and near white out conditions.
Ski conditions should be good this week and through new years.
Looking good for the Taco Baldy bash. 8)

He219 · Post by **He219** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:35 am

A week of this and we'll have a fine base for the winter!

Rumpled · Post by **Rumpled** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:55 am

Bill wrote:The snow is starting to fall here in Wrightwood. I knew I picked the wrong year to sell the snow blower You will be able to thank me if it turns out to be the 50 year season!
All this technology and hand wringing and it turns out all I have to do is wash my car!

You know, selling the snow blower guaranteed a huge snow season.

It's a parallel to washing your car and having it rain the next day.

Got some serious rain here in the OC from about 1 am until at least 8 when I walked in the building.

AlanK · Post by **AlanK** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:06 am

Rumpled wrote:
Bill wrote:The snow is starting to fall here in Wrightwood. I knew I picked the wrong year to sell the snow blower You will be able to thank me if it turns out to be the 50 year season!
All this technology and hand wringing and it turns out all I have to do is wash my car!
You know, selling the snow blower guaranteed a huge snow season.
It's a parallel to washing your car and having it rain the next day.

Got some serious rain here in the OC from about 1 am until at least 8 when I walked in the building.

We clearly owe Bill big time! Next time I'm in Wrightwood, I'll offer to help shovel his driveway.

kgw · Post by **kgw** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:16 am

Post by **Hikin_Jim** » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:25 am

Whoo Yah!